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OSC/ASM | Earth System Science 2010 | Provisional programme

Earth System Science 2010:
Global Change, Climate and People

AIMES Open Science Conference

Programme (and linked talks)

Where speakers have given permission, their talk, or a summary of their talk, has been linked below. Copyright remains with the individual speakers.

Monday 10th May

09:00

 Registration open.
Side events (QUEST, AIMES)

Opening session: Global Change, Climate & People
13:30 Welcome addresses:
Sidlaw Auditorium

Colin Prentice, Leader of QUEST and co-Chair of AIMES;
Roseanna Cunningham, MSP, Minister for Environment
14:00 Q&A session: Sidlaw Auditorium
14:15 Opening Keynotes

Prof Jacqueline McGlade (European Environment Agency)
Knowledge for action: Building robust links between science and policy (ppt - 42.9 MB)
Prof Berrien Moore III (University of New Hampshire)
Faustian Bargains: The Challenge to the Earth System (ppt - 16.8 MB)

15:15

 Q&A session
Coffee

16:00

 Setting the scene for the three themes
Sidlaw Auditorium
Prof Andy Ridgwell
Geoengineering as a test of our understanding of the Earth system (pdf - 45.2 MB)
Dr Eric Wolff (BAS)
Greenhouse gases in the Quaternary: constraining sources, sinks, feedbacks and surprises (ppt - 10.2 MB)
Prof Johan Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Human development within the safe operating space of the Earth system
17:00 Q&A session
17:30 Adjourn
18:00 Drinks reception and poster time
Lomond Suite

Tuesday 11th May

09:00

 Plenary: Invited talks
Sidlaw Auditorium
Pascal Lecomte
The European Space Agency’s activities on climate change (ppt - 4.4 MB)
Prof Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh)
Towards predicting climate system changes and feedbacks from observations (ppt - 6.3 MB)
Dr Jae Edmonds (JGCRI, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
Implications of global environmental change, and environmental policies, for ecosystem services and human well-being: energy, land use, and climate stabilization (pdf - 400 KB)
10:30 Coffee

10:50

 Sessions and Posters

AVOID
Organiser: John Caesar
Sidlaw Auditorium

Jason Lowe
An overview of AVOID

Rachel Warren
AVOID Workstream One (ppt - 2.1 MB)

Chris Hope
Climate change impacts for emission paths that peak and decline (ppt - 830 KB)

Rob Nicholls
Impacts of sea-level rise with a range of emissions (ppt - 670 KB)

Ken’ichi Matsumoto
Economic impacts to avoid dangerous climate change using the AIM/CGE model (pdf - 228 KB)

Nick Florin
Future fossil fuel use and carbon capture technologies (pdf - 914 KB)

Budget and recent trends in the global carbon cycle
Organisers: Pierre Friedlingstein, Corinne LeQuéré
Carrick Room

Yude Pan
The Benchmark for Carbon Models: Net Ecosystem Productivity of US Forests Estimated from Forest-Inventory Data

Wolfgang Knorr
Towards detection and attribution of the climate-carbon cycle feedback (pdf - 1 MB)

Emanuel Gloor
What do decadal-scale variations and trends in CO2 airborne fraction tell us about carbon sink efficiency? (ppt - 1.7 MB)

Jo House
Land use change, uncertainty and mitigation
Posters

Lomond Suite
12:30 Lunch
14:00 Plenary: Contributed talks
Sidlaw Auditorium

Andrew Jarvis
The timescales of climate models (pdf - 856 KB)

Almut Arneth
Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

Pierre Friedlingstein
Can we infer climate-carbon cycle feedback from past records? (ppt - 5.1 MB)

John Finnigan
Connectivity and Inequality: Tipping Points in the Human-Earth System (ppt - 2.7 MB)

John Ingram
Spatial and Temporal Scales and Levels in Human Systems: Some examples in the context of food security (ppt - 1.1 MB)
15:30 Coffee
16:00 Themed Parallel Sessions:
Sidlaw Auditorium and Galloway Suite

Models and observations

Carrick Room

Earth System feedbacks and interactions

Sidlaw Auditorium

Peter Cox
Rate-dependent Tipping Points in the Earth System (ppt - 808 KB)

Chris Jones
Uncertainty in future ecosystem changes from terrestrial ecosystem modelling (ppt - 504 KB)

Fiona O’Connor
Atmospheric responses to methane pulse emissions

Anil Bozbiyik
Response of the carbon cycle to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Ooverturning Circulation

Mitch Power
Biomass burning in the Americas post 1492

Phil Goodwin
Careful choice of data-sources greatly improves the accuracy of past carbon cycle reconstructions

Human – environmental conceptualisations and impacts

Harris Room

John Thornes
Atmospheric services (ppt - 12.7 MB)

Nicky Grigg
A probabilistic approach to exploring global dynamics (ppt - 9.2 MB)

Hans-Martin Füssel
Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity (ppt - 1.3 MB)

Mandar Trivedi
Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought: a preliminary assessment (ppt - 4.7 MB)

Simon Lloyd/Sari Kovats
How should we estimate climate change impacts on hunger and malnutrition?

Casey Ryan
How does fire intensity and frequency affect miombo woodland tree populations and biomass? (pdf - 8.6 MB)

18:00

Adjourn

20:00
Conference dinner at Dynamic Earth

18:30
19:15, 19:30
20:00

Bar open
Tour of 4D Gallery (i), Tour of 4D Gallery (ii)
Dinner

Wednesday 12th May

09:00

 Plenary: Invited talks
Sidlaw Auditorium
Dr Gavin Schmidt (NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies)
Using Earth System Models to provide more policy-relevant information (ppt - 4.7 MB)
Dr Valerie Masson-Delmotte (talk given by Eric Wolff)
The ice core records of past climate variability at the glacial-interglacial scale. (pdf - 3.6 MB)
Dr Mike Raupach (CSIRO)
The carbon cycle and the Anthropocene (ppt - 4.3 MB)
10:30 Coffee
10:50 Posters and Sessions
Sidlaw Auditorium and Galloway Suite

The AVOID Project
Sidlaw Auditorium
Organiser: John Caesar

John Caesar
Future changes in climate extremes under an aggressive mitigation scenario (pdf - 2.8 MB)

Tom Osborne
The impacts on crop production of a range of climate policies (ppt - 2.0 MB)

Simon Gosling
Future water scarcity with climate change (ppt - 2.0 MB)

Dan Bernie
Damage function estimates of climate change impacts for RCPs

Hannah Chalmers
CO2 removal from the atmosphere (ppt - 2.6 MB)

Integrated History and Future of People on Earth (IHOPE)
Carrick Room
Organiser: Sarah Cornell

Sander van der Leeuw
An overview of IHOPE

John Dearing
Integrating multi-decadal records for sustainable management of contemporary socio-ecological systems

Science Liaison Group: Evaluating and Benchmarking ESMs
Harris Room
Organiser: Colin Prentice

Veronika Eyring (given by Pierre Friedlingstein)
A framework for process-oriented evaluation of Earth System Models

 Posters
Lomond Suite
12:30 Lunch
14:00 Plenary: contributed talks
Sidlaw Auditorium

Akinori Ito
Fluxes of bio-available iron to the ocean (ppt - 2.5 MB)

Sönke Zaehle
How robust are responses of carbon-nitrogen cycle models to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climatic changes?

James Levine
Changes in methane at the Last Glacial Maximum (ppt - 2.5 MB)

Suzi Kerr
Effective international policy to reduce emissions from deforestation (ppt - 1.9 MB)

Niel Bowerman
Does climate uncertainty mean we will need large-scale air capture?
15:30 Coffee
16:00 Themed parallels
Sidlaw Auditorium and Galloway Suite

Earth system dynamics and future projections
Sidlaw Auditorium

Julia Pongratz
Biophysical versus carbon cycle effects of anthropogenic land cover change (pdf 10.6 MB)

Ben Booth
Accounting for physical and biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: contributions of uncertainty to future projections

Angela Gallego-Sala
Bioclimatic envelope modelling of the current and future distribution of blanket peatlands at the global and regional scales

Peter Baines
Patterns of decadal climate variability and their impact on global rainfall and the biosphere (ppt - 2.2 MB)

Michael Sanderson
Regional climate change under high-end global warming (ppt - 1.2 MB)

Understanding and responding to climate change
Carrick Room

Discussion
Food systems, uncertainty and future risks

Harris Room

Andy Challinor
Crop failure and climate change: assessing impacts and adaptation options

Terry Dawson
Modelling social-ecological systems in Earth Systems Science: Food security under global climate change.

James Harle
QUEST Fish: Potential climate change impacts on the coastal/shelf seas. Business as usual?

Marcelo Alves
Modeling plant disease risk areas based on Brazilian climate change scenarios

Sushmita Saha
The Effects of Land Use and Land Cover Change and its implications as an indirect driver of climate change in Garhwal Himalayas, India
18:00
Adjourn

Thursday 13th May 
09:00 Plenary: Overview talks
Sidlaw Auditorium
Dr Andy Morse (University of Liverpool)
Providing seamless seasonal to centennial projections for health impacts of climate change (ppt - 1.2 MB)
Prof Carole Crumley (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
What went on when it got warm?  Exploring exogenous and Anthropogenic climate drivers in the rise and demise of Rome
Prof Kevin Anderson (University of Manchester/Tyndall Centre)
Responding to the challenges of Climate Change: going beyond dangerous (ppt - 2.8 MB)
10:00 Q&A session
10:30 Coffee
11:00 Panel Debate: Sidlaw Auditorium
Earth System Science and Global Responsibility
Kevin Anderson (University of Manchester/Tyndall Centre)
Andy Kerr (SAGES)
Berrien Moore (University of New Hampshire)
12:00 Awards
Closing remarks
13:00 Lunch
QUEST/AIMES side events